房事打嘴砲－Alpha Hunter

【時報記者任珮云台北報導】美國商務部最新數據，美國2月新屋開工月增22%，增幅為1990年來最大，換算成全年是58.3萬棟。經濟師原估，2月新屋開工將減至45萬棟。美國2月新屋開工數據亮麗，消弭市場對第二波金融海嘯來襲的疑慮。美國在1月新屋開工僅46.6萬棟，為歷史最低，但二月新公布數據明顯好轉，美國房市是否就此止跌反轉，施羅德投信認為，目前仍要觀察美國政府歐巴馬提出2750億美元房市紓困計畫的執行後效果。美國總統歐巴馬是在2/18日公布規模達2750億美元的拯救房市計畫，希協助900萬戶美國家庭減緩房貸壓力，遏阻法拍潮，進而避免經濟更形惡化。

原文如下：

March 17, 2009 - Nationwide housing starts turned upward for the first time in eight months this February, posting a 22.2 percent gain that was due primarily to a big bump on the often-volatile multifamily side, according to numbers released from the U.S. Commerce Department today.

“While welcome news, this gain only reflects a modest rebound from January, which was the worst month in history for new-home production,” said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chief Economist David Crowe. “The majority of the gain was due to characteristic volatility on the multifamily side, while single-family housing starts were up just over one percent for the month.”

“Builders did pull a larger volume of single-family permits in February, suggesting a glimmer of hope for the prime home buying season, which is near at hand,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “That said, we realize there’s a need to be extremely cautious in terms of new building activity going forward, because there’s still quite a lot of inventory out there that needs to be absorbed as foreclosures continue to flood the market in many areas.”

Total U.S. housing starts rose 22.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 583,000 units in February. This gain reflected an 82.3 percent surge to a 226,000-unit pace on the multifamily side and a 1.1 percent gain to a 357,000-unit pace on the single-family side.

Regionally, the only area of the country to post a lower rate of total housing starts for February was the West, with a 24.6 percent decline. The Northeast posted the largest gain, of 88.6 percent, reflecting a rebound from a nearly equal decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Midwest posted a 58.5 percent gain following a deep plunge in January, and the South posted a 30.2 percent gain. January-February averages were well below the monthly averages for the final quarter of 2008 in all regions of the country.

Building permits, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 3 percent overall to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 547,000 units in February. This reflected an 11 percent gain in single-family permits to 373,000 units and a 10.8 percent decline in multifamily permits to 174,000 units.

By region, building permits recorded a 27.6 percent gain in the Northeast, no change in the Midwest, a nearly 6 percent improvement in the South, and a 13.6 percent decline in the West in February.

重點如下：

1.因為二月新屋開工的上升，得益於multifamily的開工率上升，但是single-famliy方面僅僅上揚1.1%。multifamily的開工天生波動大，參考價值低，參考價值高的single-famliy的上升微不足道。

2.這一個月1.1%的微幅上揚，目前還不成氣候。因為1.1%的上揚很有可能在修正後（revision）消失。一個月的反彈也不構成一個趨勢

3.老美講話還是比較誠實，NAHB Chairman Joe Robson說，目前市場上的庫存龐大…美國統計局的數字，依現在的銷售速度，一月底的庫存還有13.3個月。

"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 342,000. This represents a supply of 13.3 months at the current sales rate."